All humans live through a moment of weakness in some point or another throughout life. It could be a point of emotional or physical or even mental weakness where the normal process one is used to within the body and mind suddenly fails to cope with the outside stimulus, so it cracks leaving one small slit into the veil of consciousness

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Moments of weakness could be the worst one goes through in their lives, or it could be the absolute best. In reality it’s what one makes out of these moments that matters and not what actually happen in them

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Observing the world, starting from the inside of one individual (me for example) and extending into the broader and extended world (the US economy for example) one cannot fail to observe the process of coping with stimulus and how efficient it has become over the years. We reached a point where lives become as stable as the heart beat of a dead creature … a flat line! All ups and downs, peaks and troughs, future and past, all of them collapse to a range of limited identifiable differences that actually diminish in deviation over extended periods of time

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Ok, I just noticed economics is getting the best of me at this moment! Obviously what’s going around in the world cannot be missed, but I must simplify life so I can deal with it, which is exactly why I’m writing this all now; trying to simplify to myself what’s happening all around so it can turn into digestible quantities

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Starting with history is easy since everyone knows it. The world was always predictable within a range of error. Let’s call this error x% to be very accurate. The flood was japanning every year roundabout the same season, the sun comes out roundabout the same times, the moon rise roundabout the same lunar months and animals mate roundabout the same season. Flow of events within a year’s time was completely predictable within this error range of x%: the flood could be high or low, the sun could be few inches away, the moon few days right or left, but more-or-less predictable. The first discovery of change came as the extended lunar calendar and the 4-year sun calendar evolved; indeed the sun and the seasons are predictable, but there are small corrections that take place every year which render the correction of the total annual calendar a must so that the alignment of the seasons can happen - that’s why we have the leap year every 4 years, and the extended lunar month every 13 calendar years. In the end, we were able to predict seasons better over long periods of time. REALLY LONG! One can easily know the exact date of the lunar eclipse happening in 2328 AD (not that it matters, but it IS predictable

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Now from the simple calculations of flood or horoscopes down to the predictability of flood and drought, which become even more critical because they cannot really be predicted a year in advance. Humanity hadn’t depended on flood for its survival though; simply because what could not be predicted had to be

“hedged“ (boy, I love economics sometimes), and that meant simply: planned for in advance. So we create water reservoirs, dams, water desalination facilities, and all kinds of other solutions come forward to render the unpredictability of nature practically harmless. Over years and years of hedging we grew real good at it! We know that droughts could last up to 5 years unless there’s major climatic change in which case forget the whole flood business and look for a neighbor with enough water etc. From the sun and moon to food and drink, and finally the modern-day economic predictability. One would think: if humanity has succeeded so tactfully over the years to tame the unpredictable nature and to reduce the margin of prediction error from x% to y% (to be very very accurate), then humans are invincible! There’s absolutely nothing that can shake that rocks-solid world created around us! Until one day ……… economies failed. One might not like to recall

‘evil’ so as not to attract it - I sometimes hear the whisper of the Great Depression mentioned with the same tone as Cancer - so we’ll refer to it as the Crack. When the Crack happened, there was absolutely no natural disaster involved behind it. It was PURELY economic. The biggest problem with such situation is that the theoretical background of the machine is not enough to solve its own problems! If a computer had a virus, there’s nothing the computer can do unless someone inserts an anti-virus inside it. Once infected, it’s helpless. That’s exactly the case: the entire backbone of the economy had to be challenged in order to get the world out of the Crack, and a BIG lesson was learnt by the world, and a new model put into place, et voila! No more Crack for a good over 70 years. However, there’s nothing that perfect yet - maybe fortunately - to survive a weak point. Once that weakness - that small barely noticeable weakness - surfaces there’s not much to be attained but to crash behind it and start over. Peek at its details; impatiently understand its ins and outs, and if lucky enough, find a small glimpse of light leading to a solution. BANG! Solution is there, a new level of understanding of the world has come into consciousness. Fantastic, isn’t it? No one would have listened to Keynes if it were not for the Great Depression. Maybe now it’s time to listen to other theories that need to be found

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Within that small point of weakness, a new world will have to evolve and move forward. It could be a world which is arguably 200 years behind (assuming we run out of global fuel and end up in pre-industrial-revolution phenomenon) or possibly worse (if an atomic bomb brings back those dinosaurs long perished

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Same exact analogy holds for a single individual. A Crack is also a depression (who doesn’t live through one in their lives!) and that gives one true knowledge of their real selves; eager to explore and continue to grow and unable to live within the predictable boundaries of x% error-range world

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I wonder what’s coming next

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